Tennis · resolved market

Nordea Open: Cerundolo vs. Darderi

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5c3f57158f79a3904b88d7556ede4b1e9945d28dcac76c824724b952a2f19b7

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Darderi of Cerundolo, Darderi
Resolved: Jul 19, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $36,786
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $40,661

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,786 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb786…b18dbacked Darderi	51c	12,383$6,255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,127.86	391	44.2%173 W · 218 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Cerundolo	65c	4,893$3,166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,166.32	280	43.2%121 W · 159 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d64…5c93backed Cerundolo	43c	4,709$2,004 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,004.35	136	53.7%73 W · 63 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Cerundolo	41c	4,325$1,794 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,793.94	439	48.5%213 W · 226 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Darderi	39c	1,400$546 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$853.98	154	52.6%81 W · 73 L	+10.8wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Darderi	48c	1,042$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$541.67	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	+4.1wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cerundolo	58c	984.88$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.23	1,039	54.6%567 W · 472 L	+37.6wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ca8…3e59backed Cerundolo	37c	898.42$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.42	51	58.8%30 W · 21 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Darderi	50c	800$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4200…a64bbacked Cerundolo	61c	794.59$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.4wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cerundolo	48c	776$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.77	1,852	44.5%825 W · 1,027 L	-20.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Darderi	68c	727.57$494 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.27	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Darderi	43c	700$303 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$397	819	38.9%319 W · 500 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Cerundolo	46c	650$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	383	48%184 W · 199 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Darderi	73c	594.17$434 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.9	1,090	35.9%391 W · 699 L	+16.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc043…8121backed Darderi	54c	568.05$308 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260.3	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.18per pick	62cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Darderi	66c	520.06$341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.35	11,435	43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L	+17.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Darderi	68c	470.37$321 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.96	321	41.1%132 W · 189 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0667…42e1backed Darderi	50c	468.83$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.81	83	51.8%43 W · 40 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed Cerundolo	33c	444$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.47	73	35.6%26 W · 47 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-26%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27a9…8781backed Darderi	36c	426.2$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$271.37	154	39.6%61 W · 93 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Cerundolo	55c	339.99$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.36	629	52.1%328 W · 301 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Cerundolo	59c	310$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.9	82	56.1%46 W · 36 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Darderi	42c	238.1$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.1	480	43.3%208 W · 272 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Darderi	42c	238.1$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.1	639	42.4%271 W · 368 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Cerundolo	61c	234.7$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.17	257	22.2%57 W · 200 L	-12.3wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Darderi	68c	179.54$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.45	312	55.4%173 W · 139 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc5…654fbacked Cerundolo	36c	167.72$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Cerundolo	61c	163.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	731	47.9%350 W · 381 L	-16.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cerundolo	59c	156.62$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.41	627	42.4%266 W · 361 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Darderi	42c	150$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87	183	38.8%71 W · 112 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x198b…9973backed Darderi	51c	142.36$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.3	55	40%22 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b5a…7618backed Darderi	50c	120$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	253	30%76 W · 177 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Cerundolo	60c	108.2$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	383	56.9%218 W · 165 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f1…3cd3backed Cerundolo	61c	100$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-5.2wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Darderi	39c	100$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61	253	42.7%108 W · 145 L	+8.2wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Darderi	39c	100$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61	161	40.4%65 W · 96 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Darderi	40c	100$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	1,212	33.1%401 W · 811 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b9…b28abacked Cerundolo	62c	100$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa21d…a769backed Cerundolo	61c	98.36$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	63	58.7%37 W · 26 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked Cerundolo	58c	83.17$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	61	54.1%33 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae90…c05fbacked Darderi	51c	77.37$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.2	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Darderi	46c	74.83$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.41	67	47.8%32 W · 35 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f39…27a5backed Cerundolo	67c	67.41$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.38	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x847e…235cbacked Darderi	33c	59.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.39	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafbc…a8b5backed Cerundolo	58c	51.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	65	60%39 W · 26 L	+5.6wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Darderi	38c	50$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	61	27.9%17 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecba…5fb4backed Darderi	39c	43.81$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.61	114	57.9%66 W · 48 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b17…1713backed Cerundolo	78c	42.08$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	58cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf419…3ce7backed Darderi	40c	35.5$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.43	72	36.1%26 W · 46 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddbc…28c3backed Cerundolo	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	167	61.1%102 W · 65 L	-10.3wins	-0.06per pick	67cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x06c6…4162backed Cerundolo	64c	28$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.78	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-18%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Cerundolo	62c	24.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-4.1wins	-0.12per pick	59cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nordea Open: Cerundolo vs. Darderi

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market