Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5eaba8f17fba7e436ada8cd92f420f3e9c95cbea9794a6572298d8455be8f3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 424.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 12c | 424.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 376.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 79c | 250.01$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 10c | 244$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 134 | 35.1%47 W · 87 L | -21.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 9c | 222.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 16c | 214.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 75c | 129$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…c1c8backed Yes | 13c | 121.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 21c | 94.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 86.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 80.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,710 | 60.8%1,039 W · 671 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 13c | 78.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,658 | 27.7%460 W · 1,198 L | +119.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 78.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2,839 | 11.2%317 W · 2,522 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 19c | 72.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 22c | 54.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…4aeebacked No | 79c | 31.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.