Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a701002d82bfa4d0240f10826890262664742c3edc781d61149b7a9971dedc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 57c | 1,050$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.8 | 411 | 37.7%155 W · 256 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 49c | 1,013$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.68 | 430 | 45.6%196 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked No | 43c | 516.03$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.91 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 426.58$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.89 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 40c | 403.62$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.17 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 35c | 301.19$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.61 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 244.37$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.8 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 47c | 224.42$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.57 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 47c | 223$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +66%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 37c | 198.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.82 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 53c | 194.26$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 41c | 139$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 46c | 137.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 33c | 129.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 48c | 129$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 114.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 53c | 113$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 494 | 49.2%243 W · 251 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 35c | 113$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 50c | 112$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 50c | 111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 56c | 109.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 104.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 73c | 101.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 570 | 54.4%310 W · 260 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 56c | 99.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 53c | 98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 254 | 29.1%74 W · 180 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 41c | 93.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec7…12f7backed No | 34c | 87.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 87.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6957…3d11backed Yes | 52c | 85.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 54c | 76.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 60c | 73.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…6f57backed Yes | 23c | 66.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 48c | 62.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 48c | 60.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 56.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 51c | 52.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 527 | 43.6%230 W · 297 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 48c | 51.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 29c | 50.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 264 | 66.7%176 W · 88 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…17e4backed No | 47c | 50.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1c…5cdabacked No | 48c | 50.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…59c5backed Yes | 52c | 44.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 41c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 46c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 68c | 40.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 345 | 49.9%172 W · 173 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…b673backed Yes | 52c | 40.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a69…074fbacked Yes | 45c | 39.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 51c | 39.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 53c | 37.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…fe1dbacked Yes | 53c | 37.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 36.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 69c | 35.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 46c | 35.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 56c | 35.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 65c | 34.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…b1e1backed No | 43c | 34.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 45c | 34.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 71c | 33.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 54c | 33.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 32.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 46c | 32.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a96…88bebacked Yes | 53c | 30.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 42c | 28.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 59c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ef…7d5abacked Yes | 54c | 27.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 57c | 25.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 44c | 24.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4e…dba5backed Yes | 61c | 24.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…9d83backed Yes | 54c | 22.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 59c | 20.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 69c | 16.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef8c…a9a5backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.