Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa59bab706b5dda6cab1329b177b91b819fa48bca44944fbf9f02b1485e4d61fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 19c | 587.35$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.15 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 26c | 333.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.27 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed Yes | 31c | 325$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.08 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +66%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 258.36$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.39 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 73c | 237$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.16 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 45c | 218.18$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.59 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…9fadbacked Yes | 54c | 179.96$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 80c | 150.81$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.09 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 150.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.54 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 73c | 147.39$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 16c | 147$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.18 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 19c | 138.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 1,569 | 16.3%255 W · 1,314 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 125.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.95 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 65c | 118.14$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 345 | 49.9%172 W · 173 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 74c | 118$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 24c | 112.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 76c | 104$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 20c | 104$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 303 | 69%209 W · 94 L | +28.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 74c | 100.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 50c | 98.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 22c | 91.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 111 | 15.3%17 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 40c | 84.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 26c | 84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 79.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 33c | 74.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 29c | 73.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 28c | 72.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 44c | 64.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 24c | 64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 528 | 33.3%176 W · 352 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 77c | 62.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 73c | 58.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 54.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 53.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 40c | 52.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b2…a684backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 26c | 49.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…6b23backed Yes | 54c | 44.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Yes | 47c | 43.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 76c | 43.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 39.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 917 | 73.2%671 W · 246 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…6f57backed Yes | 74c | 38.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 194 | 21.6%42 W · 152 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 34c | 35.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 576 | 54.3%313 W · 263 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4d…5462backed Yes | 39c | 28.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Yes | 40c | 27.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 78c | 25.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 69c | 25.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4b…6ea9backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 23.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 78c | 22.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 168 | 63.7%107 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 22.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 76c | 21.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 78.1%100 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 78c | 16.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 71 | 78.9%56 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.