Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5fca99a013529b63258793060a34eac1ce05a26c6e94e8999212a2d611742ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 34c | 3,528$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.32 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed No | 79c | 1,769$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.77 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 1c | 1,593$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 1c | 1,428$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,208$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267e…a72dbacked Yes | 14c | 620.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…63a0backed Yes | 8c | 516.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 15c | 427.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 11c | 269.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 10c | 263.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 38c | 207.86$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 66c | 193.45$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 28c | 181.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 176.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 13c | 163.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 75c | 163.33$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 152.96$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 13c | 149.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 42c | 130.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…428cbacked No | 71c | 128.31$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…958fbacked Yes | 13c | 123.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 66c | 123.3$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 62c | 113.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 39c | 113.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 12c | 112.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 35c | 111$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 57c | 106.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 22c | 105.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a0…39f2backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…835dbacked Yes | 38c | 98.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 34c | 92.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…6bd0backed No | 65c | 92.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 88.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…a08ebacked No | 65c | 86.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 80.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…8c21backed Yes | 14c | 79.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 24c | 79.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 36c | 79.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 65c | 76.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 66c | 73.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 62c | 65.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcadf…bdccbacked Yes | 40c | 56.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 77c | 49.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 25c | 47.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b0…7904backed Yes | 37c | 43.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 66c | 36.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 58c | 31.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…b6bebacked No | 62c | 24.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 43c | 23.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dba…0962backed No | 66c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 66c | 21.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 78c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 66c | 15.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.