Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa56881e290e7b60a86c1eb1bcd1d55d7aba244dd39e04d1a689e3d5eb95d9f85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x792b…0775backed Yes | 0c | 18,116$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,063$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 1,990$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 1,945$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267e…a72dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,734$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 65c | 1,420$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.94 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 1,352$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 1,224$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 23c | 1,214$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.28 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,178$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 1c | 1,128$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 18c | 1,106$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…6bd0backed Yes | 59c | 898.91$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.58 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 9c | 799.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 11c | 742.85$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 2c | 700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 38c | 658.98$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.56 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 12c | 614.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 11c | 569.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 20c | 568.93$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.83 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc6…67d8backed Yes | 17c | 524.02$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 429.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 8c | 403.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 7c | 368.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 5c | 361.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…858bbacked Yes | 3c | 340.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc650…1ef4backed Yes | 27c | 339.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes | 12c | 273.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 18c | 269.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 45c | 255.08$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 7c | 251.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…01c3backed Yes | 13c | 223.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…9ef4backed Yes | 34c | 207$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 11c | 202.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 16c | 200.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 74c | 184.76$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed No | 69c | 180.25$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 75c | 180.13$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…1291backed Yes | 15c | 174.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 31c | 169.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff6…c331backed Yes | 35c | 161.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed Yes | 16c | 156.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40e5backed Yes | 16c | 155$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 26c | 153.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…bfe7backed No | 65c | 149.17$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…cdabbacked Yes | 49c | 147.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 137.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed No | 75c | 130.42$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 19c | 129.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 12c | 125.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 124.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 14c | 123.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 20c | 120.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 14c | 116.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa945…110fbacked Yes | 40c | 116.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 18c | 115.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4adf…0664backed Yes | 42c | 112.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 108.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 17c | 105.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 31c | 104.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…a08ebacked Yes | 65c | 101.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3310…545dbacked Yes | 19c | 99.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 20c | 98.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 88.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 60c | 87.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 16c | 82.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 62c | 80.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 15c | 79.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 79.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 77.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d5…3a4dbacked No | 65c | 76.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked No | 63c | 75.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 15c | 73.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 39c | 72.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc57a…ee16backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 69.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…e797backed Yes | 51c | 65.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 80c | 62.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 25c | 59.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabc6…acb4backed No | 64c | 59.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 34c | 56.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 73c | 55.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 35c | 53.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…d196backed Yes | 49c | 52.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes | 29c | 48.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 21c | 48.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x834b…663abacked Yes | 41c | 48.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…eba6backed Yes | 35c | 47.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +158.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c7…efa6backed No | 62c | 45.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 42.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3318…ab1ebacked Yes | 53c | 41.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 61c | 40.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.