Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe37f1d2d918090f8399eaa8eeb3789c0c78fe76e26a655e35a98dc3d3e6dc086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 0c | 17,343$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 0c | 10,213$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked No | 0c | 8,285$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 0c | 8,250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked No | 12c | 4,036$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.34 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 1,946$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267e…a72dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,593$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 1c | 1,428$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…fa1dbacked No | 1c | 990.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 66c | 911.94$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.93 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e7…b4a1backed Yes | 67c | 666.27$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 44c | 595.83$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.1 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked No | 11c | 404.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 25c | 387$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.03 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 17c | 347.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 21c | 326.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.19 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 32c | 324.56$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.97 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 312$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.56 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…ed5bbacked No | 6c | 305.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf96e…3902backed No | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 298.13$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.3 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 63c | 276.73$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 48c | 247.44$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.93 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 213.56$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 213.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 53c | 209.9$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.23 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 62c | 200$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked No | 51c | 199.75$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 65c | 194.96$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.73 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…2e4cbacked No | 21c | 190.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed No | 47c | 179.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.15 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc650…1ef4backed Yes | 67c | 170.55$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 65c | 165.31$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed Yes | 66c | 160.76$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11c3…2555backed No | 8c | 156.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 56c | 155.32$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 30c | 150.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.48 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40e5backed Yes | 66c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 71c | 147.55$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 49c | 129.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 44c | 112.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea62…da0dbacked No | 14c | 111.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 49c | 102.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 55c | 98.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ba…c42fbacked Yes | 49c | 94.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 50c | 94.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…bcc3backed Yes | 53c | 89.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 56c | 85.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…1291backed No | 12c | 83.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 13c | 79.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…8c21backed Yes | 49c | 78.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f8…ad19backed Yes | 37c | 76.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked No | 17c | 73.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 45c | 71.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 43c | 70.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 38c | 68.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…e797backed Yes | 77c | 68.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed Yes | 54c | 66.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 36c | 61.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 61.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 64c | 61.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 45c | 60.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 32c | 55.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 52.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked No | 56c | 50.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…01c3backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 48c | 49.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 51c | 46.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48a…7a1cbacked No | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 56c | 44.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…9211backed Yes | 65c | 44.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 50c | 44.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 44.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 49c | 44.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 47c | 44.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 43.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x982d…d208backed Yes | 48c | 43.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 42c | 41.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…08f3backed Yes | 70c | 39.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 31c | 39.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2493…8c5ebacked Yes | 49c | 38.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 61c | 38.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…76dbbacked Yes | 69c | 37.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 66c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed No | 51c | 35.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 67c | 34.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 49c | 32.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf53e…fa2abacked Yes | 72c | 30.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…9ef4backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea1…4b4dbacked Yes | 72c | 29.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 61c | 29.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 41c | 28.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.