MLB · resolved market
Will Garrett Crochet win the 2025 AL Cy Young?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe604ea47bc2b1f5c0710e803579ba55476155d24bcd8b86ca4fcf2f13575a028
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8172…abeabacked Yes | 6c | 2,631$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.83 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 9c | 900.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 29c | 438.37$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.41 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…dd76backed Yes | 11c | 412.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 6c | 411$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes | 14c | 356.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -7.5wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…73fdbacked Yes | 15c | 322.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…c063backed Yes | 5c | 320.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 15c | 299.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 17c | 270$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdd…d370backed Yes | 21c | 239.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a7…9ac3backed Yes | 12c | 237.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 9c | 209$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 149.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 11c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 16c | 77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…20ebbacked Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 76c | 47.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…f8d0backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Garrett Crochet win the 2025 AL Cy Young?this page
- Will Framber Valdez win the 2025 AL Cy Young?No won
- Will Hunter Brown win the 2025 AL Cy Young?No won
- Will Jacob deGrom win the 2025 AL Cy Young?No won
- Will Max Fried win the 2025 AL Cy Young?No won
- Will Tarik Skubal win the 2025 AL Cy Young?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.