Other European Leagues · resolved market
Casa Pia AC vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe611ed120cb0fe6dbb2ec23c8b1e4b40b2118d9c7190f1f0dd23e89510c0be26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 3,163$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.08 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…1482backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 1,994$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.21 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 33c | 1,530$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 1,394$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.19 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 69c | 1,300$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 1,054$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.37 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 46c | 672.52$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.46 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3060…c709backed Over | 57c | 527.59$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 48c | 409.84$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.74 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Over | 48c | 386.11$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.17 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Over | 54c | 350.46$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.47 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 17c | 286.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…3fa6backed Over | 55c | 221.82$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Over | 36c | 207.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed Over | 36c | 196$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 32c | 175$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…0c2abacked Over | 52c | 168.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -57%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Over | 15c | 154$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 71c | 142.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 59c | 122.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 13c | 115.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 240 | 30.4%73 W · 167 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e2…c78abacked Over | 33c | 76.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…aa9cbacked Over | 33c | 76.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Under | 69c | 71.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 32c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd81…de69backed Over | 30c | 49.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…ffd7backed Under | 54c | 46.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…c504backed Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 40.5%87 W · 128 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…63febacked Over | 32c | 40.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Over | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Over | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 54.7%116 W · 96 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f9…6e1dbacked Over | 55c | 32.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked Under | 71c | 15.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Casa Pia AC vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5this page
- Casa Pia AC vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Casa Pia AC vs. FC Porto: O/U 1.5Over won
- Casa Pia AC vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5Over won
- Casa Pia AC vs. FC Porto: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.