Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe626902949fb90e81e8e3b3c9c72e358b51af3abeeb3d57502aab9788268a925
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 29c | 757.22$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.59 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Yes | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57bb…9302backed Yes | 71c | 528.17$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.17 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 30c | 441.12$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.9 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 70c | 430.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.57 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 29c | 373.56$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 29c | 373.08$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.46 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 30c | 339.32$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 67c | 161.59$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed No | 30c | 148.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed No | 32c | 147.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20b…3ae4backed Yes | 71c | 140.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b69…dfcabacked Yes | 71c | 134.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 33c | 123.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Yes | 70c | 110.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 34c | 108.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Yes | 67c | 101$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked No | 33c | 78.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…57afbacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195d…2decbacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Yes | 71c | 37.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.