TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$98,588

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,584 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3234…8b1abacked Under35c17,624$6,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,509.71353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over61c7,193$4,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,384.923,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Under48c4,143$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,142.614351.2%22 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa374…9709backed Under46c3,496$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,884.683050%15 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over58c2,349$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.222,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over47c2,020$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.844655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Under50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0002642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30d5…36bfbacked Over62c1,660$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-45.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over51c1,465$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.9228345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe398…4ce5backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.492766.7%18 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over30c946$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.810041%41 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9897…c033backed Over45c893.07$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.88666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Over38c845.74$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.3814055%77 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under39c769.23$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.234318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under72c763.89$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.8938055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd41b…f231backed Under60c687.12$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.122025%5 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed Over33c640$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.26844.1%30 W · 38 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+46%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Under48c615.54$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.086030%18 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Under40c599.98$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.996543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Over53c550.7$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.841827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07df…8be6backed Under29c540.28$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.6850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe500…4b37backed Over64c450.69$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.442454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed Under28c384$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.781154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over60c355.2$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.2353140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f39…4c71backed Under69c349.3$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e3…4bd5backed Over38c325$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.53770.3%26 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0276…8454backed Under34c295.28$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.28977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+36.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x25c5…0031backed Under37c270.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.411942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014260.6%86 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1548…fe8ebacked Under71c202.55$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.742250%11 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over55c197.73$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3526445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x768c…7243backed Over38c187.5$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Over32c187.5$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603070%21 W · 9 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+20.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3a40…007abacked Under59c178.04$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under57c155.72$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.651,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over29c137.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017930.2%54 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under46c130.67$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.985064%32 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over46c122$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1212460.5%75 W · 49 L+19.9wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+46.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe626…92b5backed Under43c121.82$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.823275%24 W · 8 L+8.1wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51.9%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xdc29…383bbacked Under43c120$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.41827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-35.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa203…11bcbacked Under44c115$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.31546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf22b…8f84backed Under45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.11771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under75c108.69$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1762452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505a…bb61backed Over50c101$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.51758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b03…f273backed Under54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over62c95$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.911065.5%72 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over60c91$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3514755.8%82 W · 65 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x225f…5978backed Under38c82.26$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d1…f166backed Over37c81.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+133.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Under55c80.67$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.34454.5%24 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f2c…9d16backed Under50c78$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf9…c873backed Under53c75.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.472100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under52c75$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.72040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf57c…66febacked Over54c72.22$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-83%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Over45c69.87$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.727750.6%39 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd92e…fcbdbacked Under33c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+27.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff2a…bfefbacked Under55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.552152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over49c51.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2739558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2733737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0045…9007backed Under42c49.7$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.642254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over69c48.89$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4910956%61 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over46c48.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4316464%105 W · 59 L+28.5wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+49.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under60c47.95$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3964043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d70…d0a6backed Under44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over46c45.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7616056.9%91 W · 69 L+13.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over28c44.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.628755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Over53c44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.325648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20b…3ae4backed Under55c43.36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa734…65dbbacked Under37c40.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.95633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Under39c38.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9132…6607backed Over32c37.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over51c34.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.95341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29fb…4930backed Over61c32.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-29.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Under45c32.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.996850%34 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Over62c32.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1811159.5%66 W · 45 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Over62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Over71c31.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.26752.2%35 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4322245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x79e1…982dbacked Under67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+76.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x491c…b765backed Under72c29.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.45464.8%35 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffc9…bf01backed Over67c29.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.791010%1 W · 9 L-4.0wins-0.40per pick50cpaid-85.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Under37c29.02$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.287955.7%44 W · 35 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over62c27.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9918554.1%100 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Under46c26.63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.383129%9 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+135.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under43c26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.828844.3%39 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8453…76bfbacked Under47c25.87$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.72666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2912…6817backed Over58c24.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ddc…6ebabacked Under70c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked Under74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.91650%8 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3516846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.