Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0540764045035464f5dfb059a8a844d28bcd39b93a95394fc12ed2ab33505ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 71c | 3,574$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.29 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 28c | 1,331$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.71 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 14c | 1,321$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.58 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 32c | 701.78$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.79 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Under | 4c | 595$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 29c | 500.06$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.42 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 69c | 350.89$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.78 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 69c | 325.38$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.26 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 31c | 290.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 7c | 228.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 36c | 104.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 71c | 101.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Under | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 64c | 79.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 30c | 77.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Under | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 71c | 51.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 30c | 46.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 70c | 43.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…1c01backed Over | 70c | 42.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8684…bfaabacked Under | 34c | 29.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…eb5cbacked Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 71c | 26.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 78c | 25.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…c3aabacked Over | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…c51bbacked Over | 66c | 22.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…ab5fbacked Over | 67c | 22.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 70c | 18.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.