World Politics · resolved market
Will Liberals lead by more than 5% on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe68e41df5d85d05128e25089366f8f377bf777a2aea3368356b4449eea8d98bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22ad…5f05backed Yes | 24c | 1,148$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92bd…019dbacked No | 22c | 900$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…8ae0backed No | 22c | 900$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3cbebacked No | 9c | 900$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8d…9fcdbacked No | 22c | 900$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 880$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.2 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bd…3c80backed No | 10c | 760$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…e2f5backed Yes | 32c | 720.58$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.21 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…2ff5backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 24c | 441.79$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.09 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 35c | 395.97$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.85 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0535…fe8abacked No | 4c | 325$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…4a8dbacked Yes | 34c | 303.2$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 23c | 212.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.75 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 71c | 200.4$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e39…4e41backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 20c | 175$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.45 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 27c | 149.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes | 45c | 132.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 71c | 82.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 80.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 20c | 79.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 79c | 66.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f83…e17ebacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc14…e34cbacked No | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…3251backed No | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…d171backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Liberals lead by more than 5% on April 4?this page
- Will Conservatives lead on April 4?No won
- Will Liberals lead by 0-1% on April 4?No won
- Will Liberals lead by 1-2% on April 4?No won
- Will Liberals lead by 2-3% on April 4?No won
- Will Liberals lead by 3-4% on April 4?No won
- Will Liberals lead by 4-5% on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.