MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6acde32fbf2018a544bb489968ba0a7f02fbc02df0617c790fd43b38b8dbda5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb517…06ddbacked No | 53c | 1,000$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 47c | 771$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.63 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…b596backed No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 51c | 160$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 48c | 132.83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed No | 51c | 100.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 77c | 68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Yes | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…3da0backed Yes | 51c | 43.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankeesthis page
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.