MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81334117e29317ba344bb2713c65c99f23b8a072039d39114d02688d9877ff60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 21,936$10,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,967.87 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 7,234$3,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,616.77 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 52c | 6,744$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 3,415$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,707.74 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 2,867$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.5 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 2,519$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.63 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 2,293$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.55 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…49debacked Over | 50c | 2,062$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 50c | 856.9$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.45 | 900 | 53.6%482 W · 418 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 49c | 675.03$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.26 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 558.22$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.06 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 65c | 461.52$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.53 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 50c | 321.78$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.89 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 316.3$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.93 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Under | 51c | 314.64$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.47 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 49c | 299.97$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Under | 35c | 288.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Over | 50c | 210$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 816 | 57.1%466 W · 350 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Over | 51c | 206$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 49c | 204$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 166.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…e828backed Under | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 49c | 151.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 67c | 118$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 49c | 110.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Over | 50c | 102.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 49c | 100.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 65c | 89.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 48c | 52.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…f92ebacked Under | 51c | 48.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 44.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 41.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 51c | 38.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 51c | 33.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…8e0cbacked Over | 48c | 32.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Over | 50c | 30.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 49c | 30.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…0f92backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 50c | 24.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 50c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Under | 50c | 21.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 20.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 51c | 20.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…7b57backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…cb46backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.