La Liga · resolved market
Real Betis Balompié vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6c02446e2f3171bab14ab4fb1ba1ce4e4d8d64af7f21894755281b75ea1dd34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd35…17debacked Over | 76c | 2,649$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.77 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.89 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 128 | 75%96 W · 32 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 428 | 51.4%220 W · 208 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 23c | 323.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 23c | 303.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 181.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 73c | 179.05$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 74c | 176.79$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc73…888cbacked Over | 75c | 136.4$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Under | 30c | 133.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb287…18c0backed Over | 75c | 133.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…b1bfbacked Over | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 81 | 70.4%57 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…b7e9backed Under | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 76c | 65.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 174 | 55.2%96 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 25c | 64.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 24c | 45.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 284 | 46.5%132 W · 152 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Under | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 196 | 46.4%91 W · 105 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…4fd7backed Over | 75c | 38.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 74c | 33.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 504 | 49.8%251 W · 253 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 75c | 30.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 75c | 26.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 90 | 71.1%64 W · 26 L | +10.3wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Over | 75c | 23.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5this page
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.