La Liga · resolved market
Real Betis Balompié vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12b7080f8736eba57b9d0a5fd5e83bf23e09951e81feb10d51ad80d49a4061c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 4c | 5,174$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.74 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 3,370$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.76 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Under | 56c | 966.83$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.41 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 18c | 836.05$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.52 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 45c | 665$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.25 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 4c | 479.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df9…e49ebacked Over | 45c | 437$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…c2dbbacked Over | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…84a2backed Over | 29c | 350$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c34…dfafbacked Over | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Over | 36c | 281$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 71c | 165.23$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 504 | 49.8%251 W · 253 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 28c | 146$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 29c | 137.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…5540backed Over | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Over | 29c | 72.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 71c | 72.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 428 | 51.4%220 W · 208 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 28c | 70.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 174 | 55.2%96 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 70c | 61.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Under | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 142 | 59.9%85 W · 57 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Over | 29c | 52.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed Over | 42c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 74c | 27.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 284 | 46.5%132 W · 152 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 71c | 25.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…257cbacked Under | 73c | 19.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5this page
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.