Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6d94804ff818d0510a645f3fc38abaec9d20542b454805cacd2c3aa46674e2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5334…8a5ebacked Yes | 19c | 2,075$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +159.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.18 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 11c | 1,308$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.92 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 2c | 734.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.25 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 1c | 692.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.03 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 4c | 549.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.49 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…36fdbacked Yes | 2c | 528$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.96 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…1c88backed Yes | 60c | 497.26$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 422$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.62 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 12c | 388.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.5 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 53c | 384.89$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 3c | 348.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.87 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 75c | 270.9$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 20c | 269.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 80c | 258.37$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 227$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 31c | 209.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.67 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 18c | 195$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.21 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 12c | 193.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.52 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 27c | 185.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 178.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 176.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 23c | 176.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 6c | 169.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.97 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 121.53$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 11c | 115.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.28 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 105.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…e269backed Yes | 15c | 103.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 21c | 103.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 53c | 101.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 69c | 73.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 28c | 71.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…e113backed No | 18c | 67.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 63.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes | 33c | 62.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 53.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 78c | 52.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 37c | 45.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd3…f957backed Yes | 74c | 15.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 68c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.