Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5542f2c379c8efe9bb41a79511c2682fb8889eb9eca6e8d26bec9b904285c205
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 39c | 842.83$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 71c | 598.47$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.71 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 45c | 429.74$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.9 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 65c | 287.44$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 52c | 279.4$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x256c…20e0backed Yes | 30c | 252$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 8c | 248.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 29c | 230.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 54c | 193.18$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 72c | 190$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5334…8a5ebacked Yes | 74c | 187.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +159.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 38c | 158.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.16 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 28c | 158.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 41c | 119.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 67c | 110.78$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 57c | 99.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 94.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…b5e5backed No | 30c | 92.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7084…7884backed Yes | 72c | 80.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 77.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 67c | 74.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 24c | 73.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 69c | 71.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 42c | 71.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 36c | 69.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 63.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfafe…066fbacked No | 65c | 61.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 33c | 58.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 29c | 56.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 50c | 55.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 71c | 55.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 33c | 51.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9a…dad2backed Yes | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 46.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed No | 51c | 45.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed Yes | 34c | 43.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 42.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 42c | 41.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 45c | 36.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 66c | 36.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 53c | 36.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…8f48backed Yes | 43c | 35.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed Yes | 63c | 35.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed No | 39c | 32.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 31.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 48c | 30.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 55c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…91cfbacked No | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 70c | 28.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed Yes | 61c | 28.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 26.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 49c | 26.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…75aebacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x823f…6a20backed Yes | 64c | 21.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…80e0backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55f6…b059backed Yes | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 66c | 17.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.