AI · resolved market
Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6e841c41ed65247c83f0806e53a9872529ff19976c3dacb9420a660b686ac15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x755d…2721backed No | 58c | 405.85$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 69c | 326.61$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 19c | 226.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 70c | 199.94$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.24 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed Yes | 24c | 173.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…bf71backed Yes | 28c | 105.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 38c | 90.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…fb8cbacked No | 34c | 89.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +191.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 14c | 80.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…346dbacked Yes | 65c | 77.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ae…5aecbacked Yes | 26c | 75.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked No | 69c | 58.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…9d59backed Yes | 34c | 51.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf88…2dd9backed No | 62c | 48.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…65a5backed No | 35c | 42.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 35c | 41.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 39.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked No | 26c | 39.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +100%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…26bbbacked Yes | 57c | 35.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fb…c25cbacked No | 58c | 27.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 71c | 25.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 61c | 25.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 64c | 24.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 67c | 24.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 15.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.