Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6f7b2732c4ceef84c767aa07afc3d9b379cc414dfb85b68612c181a57a78967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 1,101$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 63c | 700.39$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.06 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 79c | 400.98$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 53c | 292.49$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.52 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 42c | 239.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 52c | 194.1$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 181.36$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.32 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 76c | 171.86$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 159.54$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.63 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 146$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 37c | 136.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 46c | 122.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 17c | 106.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 49c | 102.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 47c | 100.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 50c | 98.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 95.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 50c | 89.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 88.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 83.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 52c | 74.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 68.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 61.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 49c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 38.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 52c | 38.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 61c | 37.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 49c | 36.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 49c | 35.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 69c | 34.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 53c | 33.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 32.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 54c | 32.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 52c | 32.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 23.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 46c | 23.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 48c | 22.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 22.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 48c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 54c | 22.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 46c | 22.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…56babacked Yes | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 63c | 19.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.