MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe70f1501bf19ea8b1b88b8b2e959effaa63b1fb2fe68c603095dbeaf8e2920e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 961.93$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.4 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 568.95$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.34 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 511.81$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.38 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 469.58$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.84 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 340.02$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.62 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 301.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.43 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 299.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.98 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Tampa Bay Rays | 4c | 247.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 225.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.34 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 143.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 138.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 129.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 114.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 110.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 108.74$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 102.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 97.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 80.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 78.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 59.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 53.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 49.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 45.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 37.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 36.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 35.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 35.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 32.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 31.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 27.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 27.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 27.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 27.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 27.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 27.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 20.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 18.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 15.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay RaysCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.