MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x719520e6b795314ac736df0f8ce9e30b84dd8f76c8b7b26b75f79bed6821e56b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 64c | 2,026$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.57 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…1dc1backed Over | 46c | 1,662$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.34 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 1,425$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.13 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Over | 3c | 999.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…e465backed Over | 48c | 981.29$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.89 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 51c | 973.79$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.82 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…ce89backed Under | 54c | 972.4$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.3 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 52c | 968.02$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.65 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 41c | 921.92$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.46 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 39c | 665.44$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.17 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 67c | 661.07$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.05 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Over | 10c | 653.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 609 | 41.4%252 W · 357 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 26c | 630.72$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.77 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 41c | 520.58$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.14 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Over | 47c | 515$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.05 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 54c | 437.91$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.44 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Under | 66c | 427.46$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.34 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 59c | 408.95$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.28 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 43c | 397.15$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.85 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 347.7$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 57c | 341.82$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.84 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 54c | 305.64$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.89 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 6c | 299.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Over | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Over | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 40c | 228.49$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 52c | 202.23$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.31 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 179.11$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 39c | 174.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 49c | 139.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 59c | 90.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 62c | 78.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 53c | 74.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 63c | 72.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 62c | 70.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff8…a9c1backed Over | 63c | 48.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 53c | 44.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 44c | 42.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 47c | 42.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed Under | 47c | 42.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…282dbacked Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 47c | 33.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 31.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f47…742ebacked Over | 35c | 29.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Under | 54c | 26.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Over | 47c | 26.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 59c | 25.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 77c | 24.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 24.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 47c | 24.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 56c | 21.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Under | 53c | 19.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 19.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Under | 53c | 18.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 58c | 17.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay RaysCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.