South American Leagues · resolved market
Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe70f8b69f2b2e15b0d2a3354aaa2e4688575e2bfb127173c5419018cfec415da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 6,127$2,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,589.92 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Over | 53c | 5,815$3,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,747.19 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 58c | 4,726$2,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.47 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23c…5ae7backed Over | 51c | 2,963$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.86 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 2,064$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.23 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…c59ebacked Under | 53c | 1,874$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 31c | 744.5$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.84 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 42c | 698.47$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.27 | 123 | 38.2%47 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 53c | 692$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.24 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…b9acbacked Over | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked Over | 43c | 499.99$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.99 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 31c | 428.45$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.63 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked Under | 57c | 298.25$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 18c | 290.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 19c | 272.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 51c | 189.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 47c | 158$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 40c | 143.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 40c | 142.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 40c | 142.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…6ca8backed Over | 52c | 122.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…abfbbacked Under | 57c | 115.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 70cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 50c | 115.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…df9bbacked Over | 48c | 109.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 38c | 104$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 44c | 92.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 66c | 71.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed Over | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaba…cf38backed Over | 78c | 63.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 45c | 52.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 47c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 44c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…2647backed Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…736ebacked Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…d728backed Over | 38c | 36.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 63c | 36.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Under | 29c | 35.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 51c | 34.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0b…5efdbacked Over | 40c | 32.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 48c | 31.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 71c | 30.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 47c | 22.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 64c | 21.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Querétaro FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)Querétaro FC won
- Spread: Querétaro FC (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.