South American Leagues · resolved market
Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a5dcbbed08a47189eed4391dd7533c38fe86e23911b77de0522e4793f3895d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 3,900$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,577.84 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 59c | 2,920$1,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.23 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 51c | 1,709$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.55 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 1,610$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.51 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 41c | 1,270$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.59 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 14c | 873.74$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.42 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 45c | 563$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.35 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Under | 41c | 447$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…9c7bbacked Under | 52c | 260$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.1 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 59c | 213$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 59c | 213$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 129 | 33.3%43 W · 86 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 46c | 165.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.95 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 46c | 144.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 59c | 122.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 48c | 111$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 62c | 99.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 33c | 97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 85.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 30c | 82.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.41 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 15c | 76.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 23c | 72.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…6e9bbacked Over | 59c | 70.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 61.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 62c | 59.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 41c | 59.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 50c | 57.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 41c | 43.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 56c | 41.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 56c | 41.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Under | 62c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 67c | 41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 38c | 28.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 49c | 28.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 68c | 26.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 67c | 24.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 63c | 21.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 145 | 40%58 W · 87 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 53c | 21.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 65c | 20.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Deportivo Toluca FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Querétaro FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)Querétaro FC won
- Spread: Querétaro FC (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.