MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe71becc3d4c7d35383e706d2a6292cbf530e96859412104f1bd731f042e07455
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ced…6c85backed No | 27c | 5,245$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed Yes | 59c | 2,084$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.82 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +5.9wins | +0.35per pick | 59cpaid | +80%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Yes | 75c | 1,694$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.04 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…b728backed Yes | 54c | 935.78$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.46 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed No | 46c | 787.09$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.06 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.99 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Yes | 53c | 232.08$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.08 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 50c | 185.86$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked No | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 46c | 159.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Yes | 59c | 102$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed Yes | 53c | 60.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x592b…1a60backed No | 49c | 50.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Yes | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…a5c3backed No | 50c | 25.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Marinersthis page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.