MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0862e76a4b397c7ec42c162cf39fa3e2b9ab9e16dc6a75645145fb0df801a482
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 20,000$12,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,399.97 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 13,315$5,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,255.55 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 5,287$2,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,769.25 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…0784backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 5,126$2,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,248.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 4,452$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,760.24 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 2,222$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.6 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 1,777$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.45 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Cleveland Guardians | 21c | 1,699$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.77 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 1,201$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.92 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…66bbbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 1,176$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.32 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 942$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.04 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 928.37$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.41 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e8…2525backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 897.44$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 894$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.28 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 790$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 715.79$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.79 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 615$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.75 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 594.97$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.88 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 573.5$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.53 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 525$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.5 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 445.38$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.68 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9f…b100backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 328.84$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…6b95backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 302.63$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.63 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Seattle Mariners | 57c | 250$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 137.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.91 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 122.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 119.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f1…3fd9backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Seattle Mariners | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Cleveland Guardians | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -10.5wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 62.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac2a…1b4bbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…b454backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 80c | 47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 46.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 45.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 42.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…d933backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…9341backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 35.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 32.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…d11fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 31.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…f133backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 31.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.36per pick | 54cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…f0c4backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- NRFI: Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.