Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe736f305b00596cf371ed16441188d06bdd371ec5c452ec505c2dbd9c72cb2b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 49c | 1,007$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.67 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 38c | 639.42$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.98 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 590.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 50c | 423.01$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.47 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 74c | 303.33$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 276.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 245.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 35c | 171.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…06a1backed Yes | 39c | 128.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 108$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…c512backed No | 47c | 101.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 79c | 97.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 95.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed No | 62c | 85.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 84.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 16c | 80.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 38c | 70.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 54c | 67.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 65.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 61c | 57.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 34c | 54.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 72c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 52c | 52.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 62c | 51.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227e…5135backed Yes | 51c | 49.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 47.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 51c | 47.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 45.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed No | 80c | 38.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 51c | 35.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…1715backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed No | 43c | 28.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 57c | 25.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 57c | 18.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked No | 68c | 18.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 74c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.