Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
March Madness: Will a #1 seed win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe74773fb2be31d0a9e07614738343e108251a01127b9f907dfa127929e1390c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 66c | 5,173$3,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,768.29 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 34c | 4,704$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.84 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 35c | 2,211$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.35 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 53c | 1,000$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…c0f4backed Yes | 69c | 875$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 62c | 741.32$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.7 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed No | 18c | 441.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 69c | 370$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.91 | 136 | 9.6%13 W · 123 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked No | 46c | 362$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…8ea4backed No | 29c | 328.73$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e0…de9abacked Yes | 52c | 260$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…c8ddbacked Yes | 52c | 240$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 51c | 222$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.78 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…9769backed No | 10c | 148.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 37c | 79.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d9…87c0backed Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.