MLB · resolved market
Brewers vs. Cubs Series Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe760a33c05a74dfb83656331837b1fc8c0012d806ca2c781e3ceb543d8c69a74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brewersof Brewers, Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Cubs | 46c | 40,000$18,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,400 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Brewers | 54c | 40,000$21,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,400 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Cubs | 40c | 10,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 439 | 49.4%217 W · 222 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Brewers | 53c | 8,534$4,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,985.83 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Brewers | 60c | 7,284$4,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,905.66 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…18f9backed Cubs | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Cubs | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cubs | 44c | 1,210$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.4 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cubs | 49c | 1,040$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.92 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4851…1e94backed Brewers | 56c | 800$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…03edbacked Brewers | 56c | 620$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1427…f80abacked Brewers | 58c | 531.9$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Cubs | 80c | 500$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.8 | 462 | 39.6%183 W · 279 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Brewers | 56c | 410$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.4 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Cubs | 48c | 401$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.48 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Brewers | 52c | 265.91$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.64 | 482 | 54.4%262 W · 220 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Brewers | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee15…15a7backed Brewers | 70c | 142.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…005fbacked Brewers | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Cubs | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…3c74backed Brewers | 70c | 86.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed Brewers | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…6030backed Brewers | 57c | 65.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Brewers | 53c | 36.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1da7…2e56backed Brewers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d2…73c2backed Cubs | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…d0d1backed Brewers | 55c | 18.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.