Tennis · resolved market
Phoenix: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marcos Giron
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7662a4ca4423ec088716b6461f46ffc48b67ef6cdaa36062d088ce75b3c5910
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marcos Gironof Daniel Merida Aguilar, Marcos Giron
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,392 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 9c | 8,633$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.41 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 0c | 5,854$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 3c | 916.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 255 | 0.8%2 W · 253 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Daniel Merida Aguilar | 30c | 372.6$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Marcos Giron | 70c | 328.45$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 13c | 261.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 13c | 260.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Daniel Merida Aguilar | 27c | 231$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…bea7backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 664 | 52.3%347 W · 317 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 21c | 188.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…f64abacked Marcos Giron | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 849 | 63.1%536 W · 313 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Marcos Giron | 71c | 140.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Marcos Giron | 71c | 140.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 402 | 64.4%259 W · 143 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Daniel Merida Aguilar | 10c | 128.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 30c | 122.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 1,029 | 33.5%345 W · 684 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Marcos Giron | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…126cbacked Daniel Merida Aguilar | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…9189backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 29c | 86.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 206 | 64.1%132 W · 74 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Marcos Giron | 71c | 81.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6196…1a64backed Marcos Giron | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…04a2backed Marcos Giron | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Daniel Merida Aguilar | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1039…2914backed Marcos Giron | 70c | 57.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 289 | 64.4%186 W · 103 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 29c | 54.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 980 | 55.4%543 W · 437 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Daniel Merida Aguilar | 29c | 36.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 976 | 44.6%435 W · 541 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Marcos Giron | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…0c35backed Marcos Giron | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Marcos Giron | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 594 | 66.7%396 W · 198 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…30d9backed Marcos Giron | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.