Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe778d5dc4132a4c76a702e3a67e0422f5c9afb3aa79916fa9858d2bc6436883f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 43c | 694.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.98 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 58c | 684.52$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.39 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 60c | 566.53$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.16 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 11c | 506.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 8c | 271.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…42f0backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 46c | 196.29$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 169$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 145.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked No | 50c | 139.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 132.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 120$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 17c | 116.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 44c | 115.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 108$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 23c | 102.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 52c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 52c | 87.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 41c | 78.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 56c | 77.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 49c | 76.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 78c | 76.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 53c | 70.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 63.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 48c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 58.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 47c | 56.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 59c | 50.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 48c | 48.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 48c | 43.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed No | 49c | 43.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…aa2fbacked No | 68c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 38c | 38.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcda…c199backed Yes | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 67c | 36.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 35.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 53c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…5b9abacked Yes | 38c | 33.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 45c | 32.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 41c | 31.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 38c | 30.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 49c | 30.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…fd73backed No | 68c | 29.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 41c | 26.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…d6fabacked No | 56c | 24.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 54c | 18.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.