Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44799e9844b7547e15cce5145b28b5141f604dc0ebbeafbe479ea1bd7aa10c0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 64c | 698.32$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.4 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 436.37$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 336.76$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 41c | 207.73$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.63 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 54c | 190$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.12 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 18c | 186.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 7c | 178.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 163.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.34 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 31c | 163.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 150.31$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 17c | 122.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 41c | 110.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 26c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 77.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 35c | 76.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 21c | 70.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 37c | 66.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 65.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 31c | 64.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 77c | 64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 57c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 24c | 62.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 35c | 59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 32c | 53.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4282…ea9dbacked Yes | 66c | 50.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 24c | 44.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 39c | 43.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 69c | 39.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 63c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 34c | 38.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 77c | 38.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 75c | 35.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…eed1backed No | 78c | 34.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 36c | 32.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 72c | 27.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 76c | 26.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 70c | 22.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.