NFL · resolved market
Will the Saints win the NFC South?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7a4bf1b1b095ca88d0844e8f3eeff9a7d35e4ea12691845c4ce9ffa5044a775
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 19c | 15,100$2,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,794.9 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 2c | 14,160$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.71 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 17c | 10,256$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778.52 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 15c | 6,848$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.23 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,603$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 6c | 2,829$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.32 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 18c | 2,200$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…5b22backed Yes | 1c | 1,443$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…5638backed Yes | 33c | 1,321$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.53 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Yes | 18c | 876$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.68 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Yes | 30c | 650$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked No | 67c | 601$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 28c | 290$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…7f80backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x861c…628ebacked Yes | 39c | 151.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked No | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Saints win the NFC South?this page
- Will the Buccaneers win the NFC South?Yes won
- Will the Falcons win the NFC South?No won
- Will the Panthers win the NFC South?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.