Tennis · resolved market
ITF M15 Båstad Men: Jan Simonsson vs Niklas Guttau
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7b967f8a8f48a9ea207d3a33352dd726ee79c7d70e745be9b4b0c20edba4838
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Niklas Guttauof Jan Simonsson, Niklas Guttau
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Jan Simonsson | 49c | 2,633$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.31 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Jan Simonsson | 9c | 2,223$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 952 | 8.1%77 W · 875 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7787…bf58backed Niklas Guttau | 36c | 936.69$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.79 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Niklas Guttau | 78c | 588.88$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.74 | 3,631 | 54.9%1,995 W · 1,636 L | +110.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a8…e802backed Jan Simonsson | 20c | 492.71$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 363 | 42.1%153 W · 210 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fe…211ebacked Jan Simonsson | 22c | 399.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab70…774cbacked Jan Simonsson | 58c | 382.62$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.92 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Jan Simonsson | 15c | 333.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -8.5wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Niklas Guttau | 69c | 286.23$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.03 | 1,252 | 38.8%486 W · 766 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Jan Simonsson | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,406 | 45.3%637 W · 769 L | +43.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Jan Simonsson | 31c | 241.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 6,419 | 46.4%2,978 W · 3,441 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4a…ad4cbacked Jan Simonsson | 11c | 204.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…c501backed Jan Simonsson | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5698…4a0fbacked Jan Simonsson | 14c | 185.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Niklas Guttau | 70c | 152.95$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 597 | 38.2%228 W · 369 L | -27.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeec…2f66backed Niklas Guttau | 69c | 130.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…da3bbacked Jan Simonsson | 30c | 122.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 250 | 48.4%121 W · 129 L | +22.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Niklas Guttau | 63c | 101.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 8,396 | 42.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L | -162.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Jan Simonsson | 29c | 95.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 445 | 27.2%121 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed Niklas Guttau | 76c | 85.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 176 | 59.1%104 W · 72 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Niklas Guttau | 24c | 74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 4,411 | 51.8%2,286 W · 2,125 L | +137.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Niklas Guttau | 80c | 67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Niklas Guttau | 79c | 50.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 792 | 49.1%389 W · 403 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Niklas Guttau | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 857 | 41.7%357 W · 500 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88da…e801backed Jan Simonsson | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Jan Simonsson | 66c | 22.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 742 | 46.4%344 W · 398 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Niklas Guttau | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 257 | 68.1%175 W · 82 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.