Mls · resolved market
New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7cfc15b1cbcfb7ceb142957abeaebc32ce09aa242739c02639cc57efd1cec93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 28c | 4,364$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,162.96 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 20c | 1,214$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.06 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 688$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.38 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 58c | 600$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 38c | 416.24$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.47 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…0c5abacked Over | 39c | 400$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.03 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.37per pick | 52cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 80c | 328.89$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…3bcebacked Over | 20c | 240$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 20c | 223.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Over | 18c | 129.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 106 | 12.3%13 W · 93 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…1c7dbacked Over | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e0…7387backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 80c | 53.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 63c | 44.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 36c | 41.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 46c | 28.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed Under | 76c | 26.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 73c | 21.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 74c | 21.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5this page
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Chicago Fire FC O/U 1.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: New York City FC O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.