Mls · resolved market
New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ecb8741b1224d21bf2585269e1fbfed2d78b11737e5bb7a5d313e483ab8d7a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 60c | 3,719$2,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.59 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 40c | 1,566$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.33 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 40c | 1,509$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.4 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 556.73$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.12 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…121cbacked Over | 60c | 458.33$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 40c | 406.29$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.52 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 59c | 350$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 9c | 339$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 41c | 270$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 60c | 265$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 251.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.07 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 19c | 129.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 60c | 118.45$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 25c | 113.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 41c | 108.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 40c | 101.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 59c | 86.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 41c | 68.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 42c | 63.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 41c | 56.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 73c | 50.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81c…d3fabacked Over | 60c | 48.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 40c | 45.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…b8bfbacked Over | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed Under | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 69c | 39.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 60c | 39.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 58c | 35.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…2c9bbacked Under | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3650…3359backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Over | 59c | 28.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 41c | 24.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 42c | 24.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 60c | 17.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Over | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5this page
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Chicago Fire FC O/U 1.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: New York City FC O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.