Mls · resolved market
New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23d21963d95524a1d6dd5066e4f149e70378ffcd539a7a86e797407631246148
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb267…5f55backed Yes | 63c | 1,600$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 36c | 962.19$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.17 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 37c | 932.17$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.9 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed No | 37c | 753.91$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.95 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 37c | 614.21$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.2 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e1…06bbbacked Yes | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…f166backed Yes | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Yes | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 64c | 301.67$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Yes | 64c | 235.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 213.02$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…6ca8backed Yes | 63c | 206.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed Yes | 63c | 206.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 37c | 154.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed No | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 37c | 115$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed No | 37c | 113.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed No | 37c | 100.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…c0afbacked Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…b95fbacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6458…2a3bbacked No | 38c | 31.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dba…cb27backed Yes | 63c | 30.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…2c9bbacked No | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed No | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 37c | 27.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…0352backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Chicago Fire FC O/U 1.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: New York City FC O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.