Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8132c241a935b0acee31934046ef24eccbe0491f0b917aea18301e9927fe66c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 1c | 2,151$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 57c | 307.5$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.7 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 43c | 295.33$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 280.46$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 200.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 182$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 180.07$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 159.9$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 43c | 133.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 133$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 37c | 130.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 127.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 38c | 116.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 107.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 38c | 105.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 93.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 50c | 93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 37c | 81.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 81.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 39c | 75.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 72.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 29c | 69.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 67c | 69.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 66.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 26c | 54.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 58c | 52.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 39c | 51.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 60c | 47.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 40.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 44c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 32.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 31.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 29.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 57c | 26.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…ade6backed Yes | 61c | 20.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 17.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 14.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.