Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe6d41903f476f00e034bc7000dbebe5e63d738c085ce146945e61af530ccaf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01bf…34aabacked No | 20c | 580.24$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 37c | 428.25$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.94 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 4c | 422.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes | 49c | 264$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.64 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 68c | 238.73$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.94 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 218$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 6c | 210$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 68c | 206.47$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.27 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 66c | 193.96$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…b14abacked Yes | 34c | 175.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 34c | 145.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 145.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 142.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 126.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 113.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 42c | 110.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 69c | 109.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 55c | 107.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 104.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 30c | 93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 52c | 93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 81.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 59c | 77.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 71c | 75.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 72.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 62.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 59c | 62.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 57.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 48c | 56.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 67c | 53.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…4fe3backed Yes | 49c | 49.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 47c | 46.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 38c | 37.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 53c | 33.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 54c | 32.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 63c | 30.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 53c | 30.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 54c | 24.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 42c | 24.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 63c | 23.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987a…d921backed No | 54c | 21.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…0f89backed No | 73c | 20.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 58c | 18.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 58c | 17.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.