Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe83a03cec3015a6c901db61e95e9e8a4571854160a9d68c101fc491aed85dd00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 69c | 560.1$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.06 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 464.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 22c | 450$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 124 | 41.9%52 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 24c | 239.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 197.57$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 25c | 195.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 138.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 32c | 137.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 129.46$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 125$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 31c | 110.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 93.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2,280 | 14.7%336 W · 1,944 L | +51.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 21c | 79.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 74.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 23c | 71.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 68.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 57.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 43.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 43.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 78c | 40.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 39.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 29.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…c6f3backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 163 | 65.6%107 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 76c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.