Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddb68ac61d0d0c4834700291f53850c359fb4c5f03d3a9636732e6966b6ab633
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 24c | 1,308$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.16 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 429.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 353.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 275.56$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 259.61$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.86 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 19c | 242.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 520 | 46.9%244 W · 276 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 229.69$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 220.83$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 182.34$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 129.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 78c | 127$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 75c | 119.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 107.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 12c | 101.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…f1e1backed Yes | 16c | 100.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 97.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 76c | 88.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 21c | 87.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 218 | 58.3%127 W · 91 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 75.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 69.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 67.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 63.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 23c | 56.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 73c | 40.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 74c | 22.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 75c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 14.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed No | 74c | 13.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.