Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8494cdf41cc7085b05c13b5295f68666c221f18fd31670c506ec03fb2aedc71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 176.78$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.57 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 116.28$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 37c | 115$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 80.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 77.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 69.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 62.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 65c | 61.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 72c | 59.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 41c | 56.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1c…b366backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 34c | 51.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 47c | 46.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 36c | 41.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 39c | 39.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 31c | 39.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 60c | 39.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 60c | 38.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf77…5a20backed No | 69c | 30.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 62c | 29.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 28.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 38c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 61c | 26.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 21.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 68c | 15.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.