Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83db59fd8385b845252ceaeb4d431598ca0e990516fd61ec8554a532e29f4660
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 35c | 700.12$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.37 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 356$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed Yes | 41c | 230.03$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.72 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 210.77$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.27 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 39c | 177.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.85 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 171.64$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 151.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 40c | 142.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 123.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 76c | 117.36$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 58c | 116.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 98.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 54c | 90.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 74c | 90.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 89.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 30c | 78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 67c | 76.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef1…5c6dbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 28c | 65.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 23c | 59.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 77c | 59.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…34a7backed Yes | 78c | 57.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 54c | 56.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 48.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 45c | 44.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 41.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 38c | 40.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 59c | 38.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 34.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 31.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed Yes | 46c | 29.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa250…697fbacked Yes | 64c | 29.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 40c | 28.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 74c | 22.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 48c | 21.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 63c | 19.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 61c | 19.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 19.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 17.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4550…2705backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.