MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe85ad3fdc7a02c34f27bb07b5071350358fc0bf14ab37efe640fbb901f6878b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd63…cf21backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 1,836$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.91 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 1,830$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.5 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 1,047$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.14 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Kansas City Royals | 34c | 863$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.42 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 546.37$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.81 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 321.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.82 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 118.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 108.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 83.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 56.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 38.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 35.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Kansas City Royals | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 29.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 28.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Kansas City Royals | 42c | 27.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…a913backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 17.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.