MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b6243b1126f561b36d9c09aa2cbae80ac288d6504570e079ee3dd86b3d53fae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec7e…5fddbacked Over | 35c | 4,677$1,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.9 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 65c | 4,528$2,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.24 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 41c | 3,000$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.99 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 32c | 2,926$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.52 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 63c | 1,619$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.03 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77d4…3983backed Over | 40c | 1,100$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 59c | 957.77$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.27 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 65c | 419.88$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.96 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 34c | 396.94$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.96 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 37c | 316.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.38 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Under | 65c | 301.23$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 37c | 281.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 39c | 267.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 60c | 230.29$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.11 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 61c | 226.65$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 61c | 226.65$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 61c | 226.65$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 58c | 213.48$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 59c | 195.08$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.98 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684d…e35bbacked Over | 40c | 180.75$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Under | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…abffbacked Over | 36c | 160.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…3efebacked Under | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…b072backed Under | 60c | 141.11$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Under | 60c | 113.87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…3d64backed Under | 64c | 106.67$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 11c | 104.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 63c | 92.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 82.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c55…7ef8backed Over | 33c | 81.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…bad3backed Under | 64c | 81.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 60c | 79.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 58c | 76.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 58c | 67.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 61c | 59.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 61c | 56.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 69c | 55.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 61c | 55.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 28c | 52.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 72c | 47.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Under | 58c | 43.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…6a8ebacked Over | 40c | 43.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…6bb6backed Under | 67c | 42.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…604ebacked Under | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 61c | 40.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…acafbacked Under | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Under | 58c | 37.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 59c | 35.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 58c | 27.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 60c | 25.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Under | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…180bbacked Over | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52cb…4007backed Under | 56c | 22.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…3cb7backed Under | 61c | 21.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 59c | 19.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 78c | 15.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.