TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,215,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,699,621

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,215,488 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x63a5…8e33backed Under55c484,770$267,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217,444.586445.3%29 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Over45c150,000$67,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,999.955248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over43c100,000$43,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,00031039%121 W · 189 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under59c80,984$47,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,117.3632152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Over41c60,000$24,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,899.934548.9%22 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e2f…aaf8backed Over39c52,859$20,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,846.484940.8%20 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over45c51,584$23,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,169.091,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Over43c48,990$21,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,065.561533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over50c45,828$22,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,938.7165050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over43c29,102$12,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,592.381,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Over41c18,888$7,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,744.088464.3%54 W · 30 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over43c15,651$6,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,804.272,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec7e…5fddbacked Over49c14,698$7,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,250.173240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Under60c14,251$8,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,694.951756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over46c6,500$2,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,989.996,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over47c5,325$2,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,502.812551.2%64 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under69c5,140$3,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.811,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked Over46c5,104$2,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,341.893956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e36…8463backed Over49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,450933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under63c4,896$3,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,803.9678146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over44c4,788$2,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,106.8361947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Under55c4,338$2,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,952.1231149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Over50c3,500$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over46c3,453$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.561,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab4e…c4a0backed Over41c2,353$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.63438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over50c2,280$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.235,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b58…8692backed Over44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Over48c1,997$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.5216547.3%78 W · 87 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8f1…31a0backed Over43c1,877$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Over51c1,404$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.27955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under53c1,400$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6543158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under64c1,317$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.1270154.2%380 W · 321 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Over48c1,313$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.8165549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Under48c1,310$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.2555053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccc1…889dbacked Over44c1,157$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Over43c1,112$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.0425751.8%133 W · 124 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fe…f286backed Over45c1,074$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.516453%87 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb698…5ae5backed Over43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4205757.9%33 W · 24 L+5.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c55…7ef8backed Over25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-49.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Over37c939.61$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.245726.3%15 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid+221.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Under52c902.62$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.6219452.6%102 W · 92 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under59c847.46$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.031,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under58c793.73$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.831,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under58c793.73$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.831,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under58c793.73$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.8339351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under58c793.73$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.8334452.6%181 W · 163 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Under58c793.73$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.8315753.5%84 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb1f…6a93backed Over38c777.66$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d7…406dbacked Over43c774.63$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.914551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bca…0d11backed Under54c763.33$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.133542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under58c704.46$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.291,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under58c673.04$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.1451555.7%287 W · 228 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over45c648.87$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.271,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over40c593.04$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.223461.8%21 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdef1…c0debacked Under57c554.32$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.363956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87fa…12d0backed Over53c550.07$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.546150.8%31 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8a…02acbacked Over51c547.27$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.667746.8%36 W · 41 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e52…0ec9backed Over44c545.88$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Over44c524.36$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.6412350.4%62 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under69c521.35$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.3677752.1%405 W · 372 L+36.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc119…0162backed Under57c512.74$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.483842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked Under58c504.97$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.558045%36 W · 44 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over35c425.09$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7813256.1%74 W · 58 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6726…542fbacked Over50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over46c352.48$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.341,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Over44c340.91$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15039948.1%192 W · 207 L-1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Under58c336.9$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.9713343.6%58 W · 75 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Over50c317.65$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.9321847.7%104 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d0…1310backed Under58c317.47$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.535848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Over39c299.98$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.992748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Under58c253.98$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.8215847.5%75 W · 83 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over49c252.6$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.771,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Over45c249.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.522851.3%117 W · 111 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…763bbacked Over42c237.1$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9916353.4%87 W · 76 L+0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ece…8786backed Over44c220.06$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.632259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Over45c214.89$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.71741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Under55c212.29$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5318151.4%93 W · 88 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Over47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9413560%81 W · 54 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Over41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827444.6%33 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1608…eeb8backed Under76c195.99$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.04683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e46…6cb7backed Over27c192.26$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over51c190.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0694648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b3…020dbacked Over51c190.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over48c186.32$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.742,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e8…8435backed Over50c177.78$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.893740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under55c176.93$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6424348.1%117 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd10…f782backed Under58c171$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8213447.8%64 W · 70 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Under58c168.83$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.3818345.4%83 W · 100 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Over45c165.46$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4622450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Over51c158.31$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.747354.8%40 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over52c154.46$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7230750.2%154 W · 153 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Under59c152.36$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.731,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Over52c149.42$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.739553.7%212 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe292…a29dbacked Under57c145.28$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.47666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa76d…6a8ebacked Over47c139.94$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.291553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a9c…a021backed Under55c134.7$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.641266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c9d…1299backed Under56c121.65$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.532846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Over49c118$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8223248.7%113 W · 119 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdae3…cf78backed Over43c112.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.294337.2%16 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.