TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9a9c…a021

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
90
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: MLB, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 54 out of 100; worst Other European Leagues at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT2955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Blockxbacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.97
Madrid: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Alejandro Moro Canasbacked Pablo Llamas Ruiz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.41
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Etcheverry vs Terence Atmanebacked Tomas Etcheverry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+60.1%+$17.62
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marin Cilicbacked Felix Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$12.97
Madrid: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Selena Janicijevicbacked Selena Janicijevic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.58
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Arthur Rinderknechbacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+42.4%+$20.82
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+61.9%+$30.23
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Gabriela Ruse vs Dayana Yastremskabacked Dayana Yastremska · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.69
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Alejandro Tabilobacked Jiri Lehecka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+83.3%+$28.35
Monza: Stefano Travaglia vs Raul Brancacciobacked Stefano Travaglia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+37%+$7.28
Wuning: Fajing Sun vs Philip Sekulicbacked Fajing Sun · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+95.4%+$27.8
Wuning: Pavel Kotov vs August Holmgrenbacked Pavel Kotov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+45.1%+$55.75
Sarasota: Daniel Dutra da Silva vs Clement Taburbacked Clement Tabur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.52
Sarasota: Daniel Galan vs Garrett Johnsbacked Daniel Galan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.56
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Karolina Pliskova vs Aliaksandra Sasnovichbacked Karolina Pliskova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+300%+$71.63
Campinas: Lautaro Midon vs Jose Pereirabacked Lautaro Midon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+65.9%+$14.62
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Julia Grabher vs Alexandra Ealabacked Alexandra Eala · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+59.7%+$55.23
Campinas: Murkel Dellien vs Paulo Dos Santosbacked Paulo Dos Santos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.05
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Alex de Minaurbacked Alex de Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+37.3%+$29.52
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Katie Volynets vs Donna Vekicbacked Katie Volynets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.39
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Paula Badosa vs Lilli Taggerbacked Paula Badosa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.47
Campinas: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Santiago De La Fuentebacked Santiago De La Fuente · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.79
Madrid: Daniel Rincon vs Toby Samuelbacked Daniel Rincon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.58
Monza: Michele Ribecai vs Billy Harrisbacked Billy Harris · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.87
Madrid: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Andrej Nedicbacked Dominic Stephan Stricker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+40.4%+$40.63
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT2050%10 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Thunder vs. Clippersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$10.52
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$27.16
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 230.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.71
Bucks vs. Pistons: O/U 221.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.22
Rockets vs. Sunsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+48%+$13.16
Rockets vs. Suns: O/U 218.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+33.5%+$8.78
Spread: Clippers (-11.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+172.9%+$55.4
Mavericks vs. Clippers: O/U 235.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.84
Rockets vs. Suns: O/U 217.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.56
Mavericks vs. Clippers: O/U 237.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$14.36
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+84.1%+$12.05
Spread: Thunder (-17.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.61
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$21.54
Jazz vs. Pelicansbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Bucks vs. Netsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.63
Heat vs. Raptorsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.84
Spread: Pelicans (-10.5)backed Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$33.29
Jazz vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$48.39
Spread: Bulls (-6.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.39
Timberwolves vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.62
All 20 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)backed Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.22
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.12
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$23.31
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$7.78
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.43
Athletics vs. New York Yankeesbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.6
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationalsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+91.1%+$26.8
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$11.02
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.2
Athletics vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$22.41
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$20.71
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+81.9%+$60.64
All 12 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-64.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)backed Hamburger SV · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.33
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.04
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SC Braga vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$12.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Barcelona vs. Panathinaikosbacked Panathinaikos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$21.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$99.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Wildcard - Map 2 Winnerbacked Wildcard · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.92
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.