TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Wildcard - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Wildcard
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$527,957
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$589,701

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $527,957 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 407 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf988…d63bbacked Wildcard21c42,861$9,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,000.7835850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked PARIVISION52c39,372$20,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,010.632552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked PARIVISION51c33,811$17,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,733.233,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Wildcard71c29,889$21,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,165.0817643.2%76 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Wildcard38c17,764$6,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,794.7314441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked PARIVISION79c16,014$12,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,362.9376058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd604…ee57backed Wildcard47c15,804$7,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,370.214731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Wildcard61c15,218$9,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,282.2412571.2%89 W · 36 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Wildcard68c11,577$7,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,829.3412465.3%81 W · 43 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Wildcard21c10,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10023852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Wildcard45c9,893$4,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,482.0781843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed PARIVISION78c8,562$6,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,883.7145848.5%222 W · 236 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked PARIVISION52c7,843$4,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,765.742,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed PARIVISION79c7,525$5,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,580.268750.6%44 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Wildcard21c7,099$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,521.7378639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x023e…7334backed PARIVISION61c5,686$3,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.195064%32 W · 18 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed PARIVISION55c4,971$2,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,245.722437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Wildcard23c4,435$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.1964552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x127a…3344backed PARIVISION76c4,210$3,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.7429465.3%192 W · 102 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Wildcard51c3,922$2,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,004.6159839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Wildcard17c3,788$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.9615245.4%69 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed PARIVISION22c3,466$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,703.6220838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed PARIVISION79c3,121$2,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.4957358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked PARIVISION73c2,860$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.9144957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dcd…7e04backed Wildcard37c2,797$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.271338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Wildcard43c2,709$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.242,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bf…2ea8backed PARIVISION27c2,560$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,871.241764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x757f…311dbacked PARIVISION79c2,531$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.63754.1%20 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed PARIVISION21c2,476$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,956.013930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Wildcard38c2,403$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.991,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed Wildcard20c2,333$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.848032.5%26 W · 54 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc778…8d85backed PARIVISION55c2,186$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.093053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed PARIVISION68c2,177$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.8641850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e85…3015backed PARIVISION80c2,165$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.478563.5%54 W · 31 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed PARIVISION78c2,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44011253.6%60 W · 52 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Wildcard21c1,996$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.041,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x606d…1aafbacked PARIVISION80c1,984$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.2613065.4%85 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Wildcard22c1,940$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.8175245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Wildcard17c1,900$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.0751252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked PARIVISION79c1,889$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.611353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked PARIVISION32c1,860$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,264.7227740.8%113 W · 164 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Wildcard31c1,814$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.755,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3081…c666backed Wildcard21c1,715$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.084955.1%27 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked Wildcard59c1,619$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.1919355.4%107 W · 86 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e1…8d38backed Wildcard41c1,600$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.0611561.7%71 W · 44 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed PARIVISION62c1,545$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.654252.4%22 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec37…3172backed Wildcard22c1,514$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.07633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed PARIVISION53c1,505$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.297757.1%44 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8d7…406dbacked Wildcard61c1,499$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.5110945%49 W · 60 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked PARIVISION72c1,498$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.4725555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf69b…a6ddbacked Wildcard2c1,492$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.527545.3%34 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed PARIVISION70c1,397$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.6112451.6%64 W · 60 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed Wildcard34c1,368$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.5338552.7%203 W · 182 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Wildcard39c1,323$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.531,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc25…4fa8backed PARIVISION75c1,311$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.4713453%71 W · 63 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9505…57acbacked Wildcard73c1,309$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.931233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed PARIVISION44c1,273$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.9448437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked PARIVISION56c1,271$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.82,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed PARIVISION49c1,266$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.1988746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Wildcard35c1,164$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.661,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…0539backed PARIVISION35c1,075$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.769137.4%34 W · 57 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PARIVISION36c1,069$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.487,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked PARIVISION75c1,063$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.9827658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47f…d792backed PARIVISION79c1,057$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.8715954.7%87 W · 72 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Wildcard43c1,055$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.3560848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Wildcard49c1,044$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.1856732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed PARIVISION49c1,028$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.428552.9%45 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked PARIVISION47c1,010$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.531,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed PARIVISION48c1,006$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.7837445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked PARIVISION79c1,004$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.312157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Wildcard21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21097040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Wildcard21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5407…251cbacked Wildcard39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39014857.4%85 W · 63 L+11.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Wildcard77c1,000$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7708354.2%45 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed Wildcard17c999.98$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17025248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8769…04aebacked PARIVISION58c998.55$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.054564.4%29 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed Wildcard44c979.01$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.1924457%139 W · 105 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x974a…98c3backed PARIVISION38c977.7$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.262556%14 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Wildcard21c976.28$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.027425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed PARIVISION62c965.12$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.5421351.2%109 W · 104 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed PARIVISION62c965.12$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.5424544.5%109 W · 136 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed PARIVISION62c965.12$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.545466.7%36 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Wildcard33c943.73$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.3152837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed PARIVISION61c895.2$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.6711546.1%53 W · 62 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5593…2cd1backed PARIVISION38c892.58$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.569256.5%52 W · 40 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ba0…980fbacked Wildcard57c861.07$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.981844.4%8 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x8289…6bbbbacked PARIVISION76c840.7$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.3850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed PARIVISION79c811.59$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.4355043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Wildcard56c810.51$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.5865546.9%307 W · 348 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46dc…92c3backed Wildcard26c807.55$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.056160.7%37 W · 24 L+7.0wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked PARIVISION40c757.41$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.629839.3%117 W · 181 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa162…479dbacked Wildcard65c756.46$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.133145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Wildcard21c748.53$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.1937441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f9c…101cbacked PARIVISION75c748.34$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.056952.2%36 W · 33 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick66cpaid-22.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3600…f72bbacked Wildcard77c741.61$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.8431950.5%161 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked PARIVISION79c721.21$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.4641069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Wildcard20c715.6$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9832042.5%136 W · 184 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Wildcard38c695.9$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.186,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked PARIVISION38c681.79$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.7929235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x699f…c3a9backed Wildcard79c624.94$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.73652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.