TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Wildcard - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Wildcard
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$477,557
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$524,784

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $477,557 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 366 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26f8…3452backed Wildcard26c25,224$6,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,637.9619949.7%99 W · 100 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed PARIVISION55c15,626$8,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,108.068750.6%44 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb72…10debacked PARIVISION33c12,480$4,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,316.65580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+2,015%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Wildcard54c5,996$3,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,243.332,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Wildcard40c4,992$1,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,985.226,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked PARIVISION78c4,908$3,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.276058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked PARIVISION56c4,726$2,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,096.661,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION57c4,533$2,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,938.231,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked PARIVISION52c4,430$2,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,106.373,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7857…bab6backed PARIVISION62c4,009$2,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.055160.8%31 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION70c3,848$2,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.883,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked Wildcard12c3,761$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.627740.8%113 W · 164 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed PARIVISION70c3,654$2,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.0472453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x023e…7334backed PARIVISION54c3,546$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,616.865064%32 W · 18 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Wildcard22c3,321$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.629046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Wildcard30c3,238$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.382,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked PARIVISION54c3,010$1,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.1859839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Wildcard27c2,907$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.8278639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Wildcard26c2,894$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.415,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed PARIVISION78c2,503$1,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.1757358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed Wildcard34c2,477$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.4438552.7%203 W · 182 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x968a…3841backed PARIVISION44c2,427$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.588324.1%20 W · 63 L-7.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-43.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x606d…1aafbacked PARIVISION77c2,347$1,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.3613065.4%85 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Wildcard29c2,288$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.155,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc25…4fa8backed PARIVISION60c2,283$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.5913453%71 W · 63 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Wildcard54c2,201$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.8246345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed PARIVISION54c2,112$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.8988746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Wildcard24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48053746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Wildcard22c1,982$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.3215245.4%69 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed PARIVISION79c1,800$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.6555043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed PARIVISION39c1,708$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.5267651.8%350 W · 326 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78de…b08bbacked Wildcard80c1,552$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.431747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-31%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Wildcard38c1,506$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.5987047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Wildcard38c1,496$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.811,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed PARIVISION53c1,396$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.1429831.5%94 W · 204 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Wildcard19c1,356$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.725846.1%119 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked PARIVISION27c1,334$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.1329235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93df…7306backed Wildcard67c1,317$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.713253.1%17 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-24.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed Wildcard24c1,296$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.1324944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed PARIVISION66c1,288$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.844,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed PARIVISION30c1,250$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.9948437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Wildcard55c1,232$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.597757.1%44 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Wildcard23c1,200$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27646749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Wildcard24c1,199$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.729343%40 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1393…ba33backed PARIVISION55c1,184$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.7916546.7%77 W · 88 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…9f90backed PARIVISION78c1,161$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.421369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Wildcard33c1,131$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.7626549.1%130 W · 135 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdd0…c5aebacked Wildcard1c1,111$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.44924.3%4 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Wildcard58c1,077$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.7752837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Wildcard49c1,076$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.241,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Wildcard34c1,053$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.593,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Wildcard23c1,037$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4613234.8%46 W · 86 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd72…3895backed Wildcard71c1,024$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Wildcard32c1,023$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33056732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Wildcard38c973.59$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.7722927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab3…6adfbacked PARIVISION51c953.38$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.114151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56de…bc32backed PARIVISION78c952.31$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.875349.1%26 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked PARIVISION54c939.64$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.2481751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba0…980fbacked Wildcard35c927.73$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.641844.4%8 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked PARIVISION69c918.18$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.068951.7%46 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed PARIVISION69c914.3$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.9839248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked PARIVISION40c895.24$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.7237441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed PARIVISION60c808.04$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.9237445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed PARIVISION51c794.17$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.326854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x699f…c3a9backed PARIVISION62c788.93$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.353652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed PARIVISION42c782.31$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.7413743.8%60 W · 77 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed PARIVISION65c763.76$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.9341260.9%251 W · 161 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Wildcard56c717.27$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.6717250.6%87 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Wildcard55c712.39$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.116168.9%42 W · 19 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+19.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked Wildcard54c696.55$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.085347.2%25 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Wildcard19c678.9$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.7313238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09f4…58c4backed Wildcard27c663.94$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.5611768.4%80 W · 37 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked PARIVISION45c647.62$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.917357.2%99 W · 74 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Wildcard22c646.84$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.3110138.6%39 W · 62 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked Wildcard8c646.29$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3732536%117 W · 208 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x757f…311dbacked Wildcard76c644.38$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.953754.1%20 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Wildcard44c644.27$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.352,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked PARIVISION61c634.19$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.95648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d62…5409backed PARIVISION77c621$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.0348562.7%304 W · 181 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Wildcard35c618.01$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.8335850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Wildcard23c600$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1381,03839.9%414 W · 624 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked PARIVISION73c583.99$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.6819741.6%82 W · 115 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Wildcard48c582.29$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.411,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked PARIVISION78c573.8$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.2441069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed PARIVISION40c572.59$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.5511546.1%53 W · 62 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9cb…bdcdbacked Wildcard42c543.07$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.91844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Wildcard56c538.93$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.725466.7%36 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9505…57acbacked Wildcard25c531.83$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.621233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Wildcard52c528.59$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.732,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed PARIVISION77c512.31$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8336554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Wildcard59c508.37$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.7912571.2%89 W · 36 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Wildcard23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1156154.1%33 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked PARIVISION80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10040950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb64f…0d2abacked Wildcard23c499.98$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5593…2cd1backed PARIVISION59c492.64$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.949256.5%52 W · 40 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd84d…cc32backed PARIVISION31c486.6$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.6333048.8%161 W · 169 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Wildcard35c485.95$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.135,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6033…8a83backed Wildcard40c481.97$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.2615133.1%50 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed Wildcard15c469.62$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3533452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Wildcard23c465.45$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0525651.2%131 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.